“Channing Wayans” from HissTank.com has directed me to another LA Times article, this time with some estimated numbers for worldwide box office returns on opening weekend. According to the article, The Rise of COBRA will gross $100 million internationally this weekend, scoring $45 million dollars in international sales.
But where it gets really interesting is with the following quote:
“That’s certainly good enough for Paramount to claim victory, however, and start thinking about the future. The studio’s vice chairman, Rob Moore, confirmed that a sequel will soon go into development. The film’s lead actors are contractually obligated to return for another film, though director Stephen Sommers is not.”
While I certainly applaud Paramount’s optimism, and I hope nobody is jumping the gun, I’m going to wait a bit. Let’s see how Rise of COBRA performs in its critical second weekend against District 9, and then start figuring out chances for a sequel. Good to know it’s already on the radar, though!
Coming through in a BIG way, Hollywood-style, the guys from YoJoe ended up in Los Angeles for the official red-carpet Premier at Mann’s Chinese Theater, and got the chance to stick their microphones in the faces of many folks in attendance. Hasbro CEO Brian Goldner, Channing Tatum, and Rachel Nichols are only a few of the folks that spoke to the YoJoe staff!
Check out the YoJoe Magazine article about it right here, and also check out the incredible embedded video below.
So with not much else to do on a Sunday (well…that’s a lie, I’m just wasting too much time beating this dead horse) I figured I’d do a little checking to Box Office trends and what expectations should be for this weekend, based on what we know already. Of course, much of this post will probably be defunct by this time tomorrow, but where’s the fun in that?
I’ve already reported that G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA actually dropped 16% in attendance from Friday to Saturday. I thought this was a bit distressing, and then I checked some film trends. Now, I’m actually still a little bit distressed about this, but not real upset. Looking at Box Office history this year, here are some big films, and the change in returns from Friday to Saturday of opening weekend, all based on numbers from Box Office Mojo:
Watchmen – Total Domestic Gross $107 million, International Gross $183 million. Opening weekend gross $55.2 million. Keep in mind, Watchmen was considered a financial failure. Change from Friday to Saturday was -25%.
Wolverine – Total Domestic Gross $179 million, International Gross $350 million. Opening weekend gross $85 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was -15%.
Star Trek – Total Domestic Gross $255 million, International Gross $382 million. Opening weekend gross $75 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was +1.3%.
Terminator: Salvation – Total Domestic Gross $124 million, International Gross $341 million. Opening weekend gross $42.5 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was -1.9%.
Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen – Total Domestic Gross $394 million, International Gross $818 million. Opening weekend gross $109 million. Change from Friday to Saturday was +9%.
In pretty much every case here, the Sunday Box Office also dropped from Saturday, although only 10-15%. Both Wolverine and Watchmen seem to be the benchmarks, since they both dropped double digits from Friday to Saturday. Wolverine dropped another 27% on Sunday, Watchmen dropped 33%. I think those are both excessive, compared to G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA. Just for the sake of argument, I’ll shoot for a 20% decline for The Rise of COBRA from Saturday to Sunday, that would put Sunday’s total gross at $14.4 million. With that 14.4, that then puts the three day total at $54.9 million, which isn’t a bad number. It’s not the $60 million I was hoping to see, but it’s nothing to sneeze at. Of course, if Sunday drops even more, there could be problems.
Looking at Wolverine’s numbers, that film did manage to make over $340 million internationally, while Watchmen floundered at about $182. Let’s hope The Rise of COBRA trends more towards Mutants and less towards Alan Moore…
While Nikki Finke is a reliable source with some inside contacts, we also have a report from Reuters saying that G.I. Joe pretty much dominated the weekend box office, making an estimated $56.2 million in the three day span. Obviously these are all just estimates, something very important to understand.
So really, all of my yammering doesn’t mean squat until Monday, but it’s fun to talk about it, anyway…
In the end, it’s all out of our control, but I gotta admit, it’s been fun this year sitting back and enjoying the ride.
According to the previously mentioned website, Nikki Finke’s Deadline Hollywood Daily, the Saturday box office numbers for G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA came in at $18 million. I’m not sure if a Friday-Saturday drop is normal, but that puts the two-day total at $40.5 million. It seems somewhat doubtful that a Sunday showing would earn another $20 million, so I’d say a $60 million opening weekend is pretty much impossible. Looks like we may be headed more in the $50 million dollar range, depending on how strong Sundays usually are. I suspect I might even be giving Sunday sales even too much credit.
There are still no numbers internationally, so we’ll see how things look going forward. In my mind, this is disappointing news, but we’ll see where it goes.
Ms. Finke does add a bit of disappointing insight, with this quote as well:
“But I don’t see how G.I. Joe can get to Paramount’s predicted $300M worldwide. Especially when, next weekend, G.I. Joe will get swamped by Peter Jackson’s highly praised sci-fi blockbuster District 9.”
Considering Di Bonaventura has been on record saying they need at least $350 million before considering a sequel, this could be a punch in the gut. Still plenty of time to go, though. Again, check out the entire article here.
No new footage, and most folks have seen the movie by now, but with a nice quote from Joe fan and Rise of Cobra Supporter El Mayimbe of Latino Review, I have to give this TV Spot some credit and some coverage, anyway. Pulled from YouTube here.
Over the past week or so, it seems every article I’ve read on the Los Angeles Times website has been roasting the film, harassing Paramount, or making other snide or scoffing comments about recent decisions and process regarding G.I. Joe: The Rise of COBRA. Today, the LA Times posted another online article, about the Box Office Returns, and actually gave Paramount and G.I. Joe some credit:
“Given the movie’s $175-million production budget, that would be a solid start and, assuming audience word-of-mouth is strong, put it on track for a healthy box office run. According to market research firm CinemaScore, opening day moviegoers gave “G.I. Joe” a grade of B+, once again contradicting the view of critics, as they did on Paramount’s “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.” That would seem to validate the studio’s strategy to not screen the picture for print and broadcast critics before it opened and to focus much of the marketing at blue-collar audiences in smaller markets.”
Good to see at least a slight shift in perspective. Hopefully G.I. Joe’s final tallies are enough to make a lot of the pundits rethink their slamming of Paramount. But I doubt it.